Monthly Coffee Break

We continue to view the labour market as the key determinant for US rates. If employment stabilises, we expect the long end of the curve – particularly maturities beyond ten years – to move higher.

Despite mixed Q3 earnings, European equities closed higher in October, reaching new all-time highs, as macro data showed signs of improvement. In the Eurozone, Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.2% QoQ (vs 0.1% expected and prior) but reflected large discrepancies across countries: Germany and Italy lagged, while France and Spain posted stronger-than-expected growth.

Contrarian voices grew louder in October while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang warned that “China will win the AI race”. Nonetheless, October proved positive for hedge funds, despite brief market volatility tied to US-China trade developments.

Global markets enter November with better visibility than at any point this year – growth stronger than expected, inflation lower than expected and policy still broadly supportive.