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This year, the Christmas rally came a month earlier, and Santa Claus has moved from the North Pole to Florida. During December, some of the “Trump trade” winners gave back part of the previous month gains.
Although financial markets were already pricing a higher probability of a Donald Trump win coming into the US election, during November, asset prices were mainly driven by the election results.
The month of June was relatively noisy for markets, especially in Europe where geopolitical risk remains one of investors’ primary areas for concern. In the US, the latest macroeconomic data continues to indicate that the Fed might succeed in piloting the economy to a soft landing.
Risk appetite returned to markets after a cooling period during April. Economic indicators in western economies continue to point to a phase of deceleration across most economic powerhouses, but there is no evidence of severe recession looming. However, there is proof of increasing dispersion across financial assets returns and risk premia.
After five months of gains, equities finished down in April in a relatively volatile market. Although the EPS beat/raise has been high, markets focused more on top-down factors than micro news-flow.
Markets held up well during March, supported by robust economic indicators coming from the US, manufacturing and services PMIs improving in China and an increasingly dovish stance from the ECB.
Since the market has incorporated the fact that there would be fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and they would probably come later than expected at the end of 2023, core equity indices have continued to perform well in Northern America and Western Europe.
Fabrice Sauzeau, Alternative Investments, Fixed Income, Private Debt, Research Paper, Real Estate
¿Ha alcanzado el sector inmobiliario comercial su punto de inflexión? Con poca actividad de transacciones, los datos de precios e índices se generan con retraso.
Although the Federal Reserve slightly opened the door to rate cuts during the last quarter of 2023, the latest economic data points were solid, leading the Fed to indicate that rate cuts may come later rather than sooner.
Research Paper, Johann Mauchand, Alternative Investments, Asset Allocation
Like the Rolling Stones during a concert, the dovish stance from the Fed had the effect to “spread out the oil, the gasoline” on a market that was already anticipating a brighter future.
It is not unusual for the quiet summer season when investment professionals take a break from their screens to chime with nervous and volatile markets.
Las estrategias de futuros gestionados son reconocidas por los gestores de activos que buscan rendimientos no correlacionados y un desempeño resistente en tiempos de crisis. Sin embargo, ¿se mantienen estas cualidades en todo momento?
In a market animated by contradictory economic data points, NVIDIA’s excellent Q1 earnings were enough to light the fire under an already hot technology sector.