Podcasts

The European lower mid-market offers significant opportunities for senior lenders, driven by untapped M&A potential and flexible financing solutions.

We maintain an overweight stance on global equities, adopting a more balanced approach across sectors and regions. Notably, we have a renewed interest in Europe and China, as the catch-up trade in these regions still has potential upside: a range of macroeconomic, geopolitical and technological factors have introduced notable shifts that investors must carefully assess.

In January, European equities closed the month higher, outperforming the US and narrowing part of the valuation gap between the two sides of the Atlantic. In addition to attractive valuation multiples, the eurozone has benefited from improving macro data (the composite PMI edged into expansionary territory at 50.2 in January and retail sales have risen for five consecutive months) and the ongoing rate-cutting cycle from the European Central Bank (ECB), while the Fed has decided to pause rate cuts.

Investors had a few months to get mentally prepared for the return of Donald Trump to the White House. While he has not disappointed and started his second term with a bang, the real surprise came from China with the introduction of DeepSeek to the world. The results announced by this technology company had the effect of a financial quake towards some of the star market performers over the last quarters.

Over the month of January, rates markets ended up at much the same point where they stood at the beginning of the year, but masking significant intra-month volatility. Usually, an inauguration would not be expected to cause much turbulence, as policy proposals should be well-understood and priced in.

European investors will digest the conclusions from the Munich Security Conference and the progress made on Ukraine ceasefire talks.

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the Republican Party's control of both houses of Congress, has resulted in a new political landscape in the United States. What key decisions must the new administration make? What impact will these decisions have on the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and investors?

The global macro environment will likely favour further dollar strength, despite the strong appreciation since the US elections in early November. Under President Trump’s second administration, we may even test the dollar highs seen during Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve chairmanship in the 1980s.