Coffee break

Tariffs, Data, and Decisions

The United States and the European Union have reached a trade deal that introduces a 15% blanket tariff on all EU goods imported into the US, along with additional EU commitments to purchase US energy and defense products. The agreement takes effect on Friday.

Flash PMIs for the US, euro zone, UK, and Japan will reveal July’s global economic momentum in manufacturing and services. These data points will influence central bank expectations and investor risk appetite across regions.

Inflation will be a central focus for global investors, with key reports expected from the US, UK, Canada, and Japan. US inflation data is expected to show an acceleration in June.

After the big bill last week, markets will focused on big tariffs as little clarity has emerged on what will happen as the tariff deadline looms.

With US markets closed Friday for the July 4 holiday, the job report for June drops Thursday. Employment growth and wages will be critical for gauging economic momentum and shaping Fed expectations.

Flash PMI data for June will provide an early read on global manufacturing and services, highlighting growth momentum, inflation risks, and potential monetary policy shifts.

The Fed’s interest rate decision, economic projections, and press conference will guide market expectations on US monetary policy in H2.

Preliminary sentiment and inflation data from the US will offer fresh insight into the tariff impact on household confidence and ultimately the Fed’s policy path.

The ECB and Bank of Canada will both announce monetary policy decisions. The tone of President Lagarde’s press conference will be closely monitored for signals on how gradual or front-loaded the path of cuts may be reinforcing a synchronized easing among developed markets - except the Fed.

Markets will assess the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff threats on the European Union. The move raises risks for global trade, inflation, and corporate margins.

Markets will digest the results of the first meeting in three years between Ukraine and Russia, who met in Istanbul.

The US consumer will be in the spotlight as retail sales figures alongside preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey will be released. This will offer a window into American household spending behaviour and confidence.

The Fed and Jerome Powell’s press conference will be in the spotlight. Markets expect no change in rates, but any shift in tone – especially regarding inflation risks tied to the US trade policy – could jolt expectations for H2 2025.

The Chinese Politburo gathering is expected to provide more insight on potential stimulus and exemptions measures to support its economy. After Alphabet and Tesla this week, keep an eye on ongoing MegaCap Tech earnings (s.a. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft).

Markets will continue to scrutinise growing tensions in DC as US President Trump took aim at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noting that his "termination can't come soon enough."

Monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Korea, and reactions to trade tensions and currency disruptions will be high on the agenda.

Markets will digest the latest news on tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer inflation expectations will provide early signals on upcoming household spending trends, and potential Fed policy shifts.

The US reciprocal tariffs will be announced, following weeks of market volatility. A 25% tariff on imported cars is already set to take effect, which could have significant economic and trade implications, notably on Europe, Japan and South Korea.

Early global economic data on manufacturing and services will offer insights into demand trends in March, potential sector weaknesses, and regional divergence, shaping market expectations.

Central banks will be in focus as the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ are meeting. US rates are expected to hold steady but the quarterly FOMC projections update will offer insight into the committee’s outlook.

Domestic challenges in the US will be in the spotlight as a government funding deal to avoid a shutdown and preliminary readings of the Michigan survey will provide insights into current consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will be scrutinised.

US President Trump's address to a joint session of Congress and the potential start of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico along with additional 10% tariffs on China will be in focus.

Investors will digest the results of the German general election. Forming a new coalition is expected to last into April.

European investors will digest the conclusions from the Munich Security Conference and the progress made on Ukraine ceasefire talks.