Fixed Income

The last month of 2024 was a difficult one for the markets. Most major rates markets sold off, with the US 10-year rising by 40 basis points. At the same time, risk assets offered relatively little respite.

This US presidential cycle was historic in many ways, not least in terms of the starkly contrasting policy agendas proposed by the opposing candidates.

Following the US election, what will the bond landscape look like around the world in the near term and the medium term? President-elect Trump should be able to implement much of his political agenda over the next few years. We think four themes stand out: Tariffs, Regulations, Tax Cuts, and Immigration. What we don’t yet know is the timing and the magnitude of these elements.

Over a decade ago negative rates started looming, creating an unprecedented environment. Well the Fixed Income space is definitely the opposite, a lush jungle dominated by the canopy, aka the AAA-AA ratings, covering an Investment Grade A to BBB ratings understory, down to the High Yield BB and lower ratings forest floor.

Central banks were out in full force in September, with the Federal Reserve implementing a meaningful 0.5% rate cut, while the ECB continued its easing cycle with a cut of 0.25%.

Over the last 2 years Central Banks-driven rates hikes have deeply impacted the High Yield markets globally.

August was no by means all rest and relaxation for market participants.

Based on our long-standing views of the financial benefits of sustainability, we integrate some level of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factor analysis across all our investment processes, and particularly for our sustainable investment strategies.

June was marked by a significant uptick in political uncertainty both in the US and the EU. European parliamentary elections saw right-wing parties gain increased prominence, particularly in France where the strength of their victory led President Macron to call surprise legislative elections.

May was a rather mixed month for bond investors, depending on which side of the Atlantic they were invested in. While US rates rallied, with the 10Y coming down by 18 basis points, Euro rates rebounded, with the German 10Y rising by 8 basis points.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has undergone a significant transformation, evolving from a passive observer to a proactive guardian of financial stability in the eurozone. As the ECB normalises its monetary policy after a period of unconventional measures, a key challenge has emerged: managing excess liquidity. This paper explores the ECB's evolving role in addressing this challenge.

In an ever-evolving financial landscape dominated by data-driven decision-making and economic uncertainty, understanding the nuances of fixed income investing is paramount.

April very much saw investors across most asset classes on the edge of their seats, waiting for the fog to lift on the inflation and larger macroeconomic picture and on how the Fed would react.

Discover how Candriam, with its low-correlation alternative strategy, is navigating the credit markets in these paradigmshifting times. Nicolas Jullien and Thomas Joret provide you with the essential information you need to understand this strategy.

March was a clement month for investors, with most asset classes delivering a positive performance.

High yield markets are shrinking. Do you know that they have contracted by 25% over the past two years? The ICE BofA BB-B Global High Yield Index has lost $654 million in value. In the meanwhile, investor demand for credit and high yield has rebounded at the end of last year.

On April 13, Iran decided to strike Israel with 300 drones and missiles following an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Regional escalation and oil price are at risk. This tail risk cannot be ignored. We are closely monitoring the unfolding situation.

February was marked by a strong investor preference for risky assets, with equities on both sides of the Atlantic performing well.

With 2024 underway, many bond investors are still wondering how the environment for Emerging Markets debt will differ from that of 2023.. Indeed, it looks more benign for Emerging Market Debt ….

The major advantage of a convertible bond is its ability to gain exposure to the equity markets while benefiting from downside protection.

Philippe Dehoux, Sylvain de Bus and Pierre Boyer explain how shortterm bonds are making the most of what the euro fi xed income market has to offer in the volatile environment ahead.

Has commercial real estate reached its inflection point? With little transaction activity, price and index data are generated with a lag. Market prices can change much more rapidly than they can be aggregated and reported. Investors must rely on fundamental analysis and experience more than data to time the recovery.

In recent years, new structural trends have emerged, such as the polarization of the world, the re-localisation of supply chains, and the fight against climate change. These new trends are leading to higher inflation and lower growth. This new paradigm is having a significant impact on the financial situation of companies, and therefore on investment in corporate bonds. This calls for strategic adaptation on the part of investors. Adopting a strategy that aims to deliver a performance independent of credit market trends would therefore appear to be an investment solution worth considering in this new environment.

After two months of heavy exuberance in November and December last year, January 2024 was marked by moderation. Returns across fixed-income asset classes were mostly muted as investors dialled back the prospect of rate cuts in Q1 while supply was huge at the beginning of the year.

After 2022, which covered the end of a decade of monetary policy loosening, 2023 has been the year of the repricing of the whole interest rate curve. The end of Central Banks’ "higher for longer" mantra supported a steepening of the yield curves and repriced real interest rates which are back now in positive territory, for the first time in close to ten years.