Both the nonfarm payrolls report and preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index will offer insights into the strength of the US consumer at the start of the year.
The Fed and the ECB will take centre stage. The first is expected to hold rates steady but the latter is likely to cut rates. The press conferences will provide additional insights.
The Q4 earnings season will gather speed as Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple will report, dominating the tech sector.
Donald Trump is being sworn in as the 47th US president in the most high-profile part of the transition of power between government leaders in Washington, DC.
Markets will focus on inflation as the US PPI, CPI and retail sales will provide crucial insights into inflation trends and consumer spending. Both are pivotal in consolidating the expected skip from the FOMC in January, while upside strength would further lower the probability of a March cut.
Central bank meetings will be in the spotlight with the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of China scheduled. Fed chair Powell's remarks will focus on the central bank's economic projections for the next quarters.
Inflation will be in the spotlight with the US October PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and personal income. The euro zone flash November CPI’s and the Tokyo CPI will complete the picture.
Markets will digest the US election result and its likely policy implications.
In the euro zone, the estimated GDP growth rate as well as preliminary data on employment change will keep the focus on the region’s fundamentals.
The long-awaited and highly commented on US elections take place. Even though Donald Trump recently gained some momentum over Kamala Harris, the race is still expected to be very tight.
The US earnings season will feature reports from Meta, Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon.
Global Flash PMI will provide a snapshot of economic activity in manufacturing and services. Besides the early insight into economic trends, this data allows for a valuable international comparison.
The euro zone will be in the spotlight with an ECB interest rate decision to support the faltering economy.
In the US, preliminary building permits and housing starts, mortgage applications, and speeches by various FOMC members will keep investors focused on the next monetary policy move.
In China, data on the house price index, the GDP growth rate, retail sales and the unemployment rate are likely to start reflecting soon a recovery in consumer confidence.
The third-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies kicks off, with Johnson & Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and big US banks, set to announce their results.
China is due to release a series of data covering inflation, vehicle sales, balance of trade with imports and exports, as expectations of a recovery in consumer confidence are rising.
The US job report will give insight into the health of the US labour market, consumer confidence and spending, both highly linked to employment levels and the trajectory of upcoming Fed cuts.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve Bank meeting. A rate cut is as good as done and the Fed can surprise with a dovish stance but it cannot surprise with a hawkish one.
The next US job report is the key set of data that will determine the rate path in the near term, starting with the size of the September Fed funds cut.
In the US, several data points such as retail sales, consumer sentiment and inflation data will provide further insight into the US economy’s resilience.
The earnings season continues, featuring reports from Zalando, Walt Disney, and Super Micro Computer, as the market digests the weaker-than-expected labour market.
