Global growth progresses in line with expectations, but the economic landscape remains fragmented. While activity is strong in the United States, the Eurozone is struggling to move forward, and China is penalised by weak consumption. Geopolitical tensions and the rise of political uncertainty in several countries risk exacerbating these divergences in 2025.

As we head into 2025, the stars seem to be aligning for a revival of mergers and acquisitions, creating a fertile environment for investors seeking new opportunities. Merger arbitrage strategies attempt to capitalize on M&A activity by using a structured approach returns.

2024 concluded as another annus horribilis for climate action, with COP29 blowing “hot air”, reinforced geopolitical tensions overshadowing the climate crisis, and the re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. We only have a couple of years left before spending the totality of the +1.5°C carbon budget. How will the recent political changes and global geopolitical tensions impact the transition?

With Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025, his second term is likely to see a resurgence of tariffs and export restrictions among other things, raising concerns about China's ability to withstand a resurgence of 'America First' policies.

As Donald Trump returns to White House, his policy agenda could send ripples through the global oil market. His trade wars and immigration stance are expected to fuel inflation, while his commitment to deregulation and to increasing US oil production pose new challenges for oil prices.

If investors are expected to be early in detecting future trends, then our community certainly thinks AI is the future. Will the surprises continue? To help train ChatGPT’s response, we analyse the tangible revenue that has emerged so far, and consider the ‘sweet spot’, the ‘runners-up’ and the ‘too early’.

Conflicting or competing regulatory regimes on both sides of the Atlantic, a changing rates environment with central banks in easing mode, and consolidation are the new trends to watch in the European banking sector as we head into 2025. Select carefully and keep an eye on the emissions.

While easing interest rate pressure may bring some relief to the European property market, some challenges remain, making selectivity crucial in navigating today's uncertain environment.